Vanguard Neurologist

From ScienceDaily.com:

Heavier rainstorms lie in our future. That’s the clear conclusion of a new MIT and Caltech study on the impact that global climate change will have on precipitation patterns.

But the increase in extreme downpours is not uniformly spread around the world, the analysis shows. While the pattern is clear and consistent outside of the tropics, climate models give conflicting results within the tropics and more research will be needed to determine the likely outcomes in tropical regions.

Overall, previous studies have shown that average annual precipitation will increase in both the deep tropics and in temperate zones, but will decrease in the subtropics. However, it’s important to know how the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events will be affected, as these heavy downpours can lead to increased flooding and soil erosion.

It is the frequency of these extreme events that was the subject of this new research, which will appear online in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences during the week of Aug. 17. The report was written by Paul O’Gorman, assistant professor in the Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences at MIT, and Tapio Schneider, professor of environmental science and engineering at Caltech.

Model simulations used in the study suggest that precipitation in extreme events will go up by about 6 percent for every one degree Celsius increase in temperature. Separate projections published earlier this year by MIT’s Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change indicate that without rapid and massive policy changes, there is a median probability of global surface warming of 5.2 degrees Celsius by 2100, with a 90 percent probability range of 3.5 to 7.4 degrees.

Specialists in the field called the new report by O’Gorman and Schneider a significant advance. Richard Allan, a senior research fellow at the Environmental Systems Science Centre at Reading University in Britain, says, “O’Gorman’s analysis is an important step in understanding the physical basis for future increases in the most intense rainfall projected by climate models.” He adds, however, that “more work is required in reconciling these simulations with observed changes in extreme rainfall events.” The basic underlying reason for the projected increase in precipitation is that warmer air can hold more water vapor. So as the climate heats up, “there will be more vapor in the atmosphere, which will lead to an increase in precipitation extremes,” O’Gorman says.

However, contrary to what might be expected, extremes events do not increase at the same rate as the moisture capacity of the atmosphere. The extremes do go up, but not by as much as the total water vapor, he says. That is because water condenses out as rising air cools, but the rate of cooling for the rising air is less in a warmer climate, and this moderates the increase in precipitation, he says.

The reason the climate models are less consistent about what will happen to precipitation extremes in the tropics, O’Gorman explains, is that typical weather systems there fall below the size limitations of the models. While high and low pressure areas in temperate zones may span 1,000 kilometers, typical storm circulations in the tropics are too small for models to account for directly. To address that problem, O’Gorman and others are trying to run much smaller-scale, higher-resolution models for tropical areas.

From Boston.com:

A weak response to climate change could be catastrophic for international health, leading doctors said in two British medical journals Wednesday.

Experts have previously warned that global warming could mean a spike in diseases including malaria and dengue fever, and that higher temperatures would result in food shortages, sanitation problems and extreme weather events like hurricanes and floods.

In a letter jointly published in The Lancet and BMJ, presidents from 18 medical organizations worldwide called on doctors to pressure politicians meeting in Copenhagen in December to take decisive action on global warming.

“There is a real danger that politicians will be indecisive,” wrote the doctors, who included the presidents of the American College of Physicians, Hong Kong’s Academy of Medicine and Britain’s Royal College of Physicians. “We call on doctors to demand that their politicians listen to the clear facts that have been identified in relation to climate change and act now.”

In an accompanying editorial, Lord Michael Jay of the medical charity Merlin and Michael Marmot of University College London wrote that “a successful outcome at Copenhagen is vital for our future as a species and for our civilization.”

In December, the United Nations will host a conference to draw up a new climate change treaty to replace the Kyoto protocol. Getting all 193 member countries to agree could be tricky, as officials reported in August that only “selective progress” has been made on getting consensus on the 200-page draft treaty.

From NaturalNews.com:

Having fish for dinner tonight? Chances are fifty-fifty it came from a farm.

A new online report in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences notes that aquaculture is expected to hit a landmark by the end of this year – supplying half of the total fish and shellfish people eat in the world.

But that growth in aquaculture is placing pressure on wild fish stocks because farmed fish are often fed less expensive wild fishmeal and fish oil to help them grow faster and become more flavorful. While the industry has worked hard to reduce the amount of fishmeal they use per fish, there is so much more farming going on, aquaculture is increasingly taking a larger piece of the fishmeal and fish oil produced around the world.

The international study, led by Rosamond L. Naylor of Stanford University examined aquaculture trends in several species. Vegetarian species, such as Chinese carp and tilapia began being fed more fishmeal in the 1990s to increase yields. That changed between 1995 and 2007 when farmers reduced the share of fishmeal in carp diets by 50 percent and in tilapia diets by nearly two-thirds. Still, in 2007, those fish farms together consumed more than 12 million metric tons of fishmeal.

“Even the small amounts of fishmeal used to raise vegetarian fish add up to a lot on a global scale,’’ said Naylor.

One of aquaculture’s largest consumers of wild fish is salmon farms, where up to five pounds of wild fish is used to produce one pound of salmon. Salmon is one of the most popular farmed fish in the world, in large part because they contain fatty acids that can combat heart disease.

The researchers said a four percent reduction in fish oil fed to salmon would translate into needing only about four pounds – not five – to produce a pound of salmon. The scientists also pointed to other ways to feed fish, such as using protein from grain and extracting fatty acids from single-cell microorganisms and genetically modified land plants.

From USAToday.com:

Sun exposure can cause sunburn, wrinkles, age spots and contribute to skin cancer. But despite that, 31% of Americans say they never wear sunscreen, even if they are outside for more than four hours, according to a poll of 1,000 adults, age 18 and older, conducted by Consumer Reports’ National Research Center.
Only 27% of men and 48% of women usually put on sunscreen if they are planning to spend two to four hours in the sun. And 27% of parents with kids under 12 say they never or only sometimes apply sunscreen to their children when they are outside two to four hours. Fourteen percent don’t apply sunscreen to their kids when they are outside for more than four hours.

Nevertheless, skin cancer is a concern, with 22% of those polled saying they had been examined by the doctor for something they thought might be skin cancer, and 14% saying they’ve been told by a physician that they are at risk of skin cancer.

Consumer Reports examined different sunscreens’ ability to protect against ultraviolet A and ultraviolet B radiation and found that most do the job well. In the July issue, the magazine names three best buys: Walgreens Continuous Spray Sport SPF 50; Coppertone Water Babies SFP 50 (lotion); Target Sport Continuous Spray SPF 30 (brand name has changed to Up & Up).

Also, getting good ratings: Aveeno Continuous Protection Spray SPF 45 (this formula is being changed to SPF 50, but the magazine did not test that version); and Bull Frog Marathon Mist Continuous Spray SPF 36.

Several highly rated products from 2007 are still available, including Blue Lizard Regular Australian SPF 30+; Mustella Bébé/Enfant High Protection SPF 50; Lancôme Paris Sôleil Ultra Expert Sun Care for Sensitive Skin SPF 50; and Fallene Cotz SPF 58. These tend to be more expensive than this year’s Best Buys.

“We didn’t find any meaningful differences between sprays and lotions in terms of protection this year or last year,” says Jamie Hirsh, associate health editor for the magazine. “It’s really a personal preference. With the sprays, they may be trickier to apply, especially if it’s windy.”